This article is an independent contribution sourced from Reginald Ntomba’s blog.
Why was the PF so comprehensively beaten in the September 5 Mkaika parliamentary by-election?
In 2011, David Phiri won the seat on the MMD ticket with 6813 votes against the PF’s Mustapher Banda who got 3871. That was a difference of 2942.
In last week’s by-election, Phiri got 1712 votes compared to the MMD’s Peter Phiri who amassed 9,054. This is a difference of 7392 votes. What explains this massive scale of defeat?
The following five factors are by no means exhaustive.
First, this election was caused by Phiri’s attempt to stretch the stroke of luck that Gabriel Namulambe and Stephen Masumba enjoyed when they swam in the euphoria that brought PF to power in 2011. That euphoria has now faded and those that were hoping to continue riding on it must smell the coffee and wake up.
So Phiri grossly miscalculated. The ability to read signs is one mark of political shrewdness. Richard Taima’s and James Chsihiba’s experience should have acted as enough restraint for Phiri. As such, Phiri did not need much thinking and analysis to discern that he was embarking on a dangerous gamble – especially that in addition to Solwezi Central and Kafulafuta, the nearby Chipata Central had produced a result which showed that the jolly ride for defectors was over.
But Phiri walked right into it and humiliation was the price he paid. He joins the likes of Taima and Chishiba who have been relegated to obscurity, courtesy of their own misadventure and exaggerated ambition.
Second, the PF did not have a convincing message for Mkaika. In all the by-elections held after the 2011 general election, the PF have been preaching the same message – ‘you need a ruling party MP to deliver development’. So in Mkaika they stuck to that tired and discredited myth. That was despite Chipata Central, Kafulafuta and Solwezi Central rejecting that thinking. The lesson here is that the PF should repackage their message. This line they have consistently held onto is passed its sell-by-date.
In any case, sticking to this message makes the PF appear hypocritical. In the 2006 general election, the PF emerged with 43 MPs, a huge improvement from the one seat they collected five years earlier. The competition they provided to the MMD both inside and outside Parliament was good for democracy. So would the PF accept the accusation that they intended to consign areas they controlled to underdevelopment since they now argue that only ruling party MPs can facilitate development?
Third, the PF have been in power for almost two years now. The honeymoon is over. Two years is enough time for PF opponents to diagnose ills in their management of the country and use that against them. So blaming their predecessors as a mode of campaigning for a by-election does not help the PF improve their fortunes.
Four, in any election, there is always a question of whether people voted for the party or the candidate. The result in Mkaika was an affirmation of the people’s loyalty to the MMD. If Phiri was popular as an individual, voters would have followed him to the PF and that would have effectively shifted the ground in Mkaika in favour of PF. That did not happen and that is not a surprising trend for Eastern Province.
For a long time, the province stuck with UNIP after it was rejected in 1991 in other parts of the country. It was only after UNIP committed political suicide in 1996 that its presence begun to fade. But even in 2006, fifteen years after UNIP had lost power, it still managed to pick a seat through Mkhondo Lungu in Lundazi.
Fifth, the result was also a strong message that people cannot be taken for granted. Two years ago, they entrusted Phiri with the noble task of representing and articulating their interests. Instead of working towards that, he chose to fall for the myth that an MP cannot facilitate development if he or she belongs to the opposition. The people did not buy that. They protested by handing him a defeat much larger than he won last time.
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