The speaker of Zambia’s parliament my have ‘tossed’ Geoffrey Bwalya Mwamba (GBM) out of the house but the burly businessman knows that the loss of his seat is merely a temporary setback.
GBM’s political maneuvers over the past few months seem to suggest a properly thought – out political strategy which could realize the former defense minister’s ambition to lead Zambia as president. His decision to back Hakainde Hichilema during the 2015 presidential by election and subsequent defection to the United Party for National Development (UPND) was not by default.
For more than ten years, GBM has not hidden his ambition to become president of Zambia. While still a member of the former ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD), GBM declared intentions to succeed Levy Mwanawasa at the end of his second term in 2011. He was among the party’s key financiers and was MMD’s candidate for Kabwata constituency in the 2006 general elections which he lost to Given Lubinda. Thereafter, political events in the MMD did not particularly favour his ambition and he ditched the MMD for the Patriotic Front (PF) soon after the death of Mwanawasa in 2008.
In the PF, GBM financed his way to the top leadership of the party and earned himself the position of minister of defense in 2011. Soon after PF’s 2011 electoral victory, the former Kasama parliamentarian set in motion the process to position himself as Micheal Sata’s successor through a vigorous social media campaign and among party cadres across the country.
However, his campaign activities met with some stiff competition from an equally determined presidential hopeful in the name of Wynter Kabimba who was, at the time, the chief executive of the PF. The fight between GBM and Wynter intensified as Sata’s health deteriorated and the possibility of a presidential by election became real. Wynter and the so called cartel managed to frustrate GBM out of government and tried to hound him out of the PF but he fought back fiercely. In the end, GBM and his allies engineered the dismissal of Wynter from government and the influential position of party Secretary General at the end of August in 2014.
However, history repeated itself for GBM when the wind of fortune blew not in his favour but towards Edgar Lungu who eventually succeeded Micheal Sata in early 2015. Having failed to secure nomination as PF candidate in the 2015 election, GBM’s presidential ambition was, once again, in complete disarray and in dire need for help.
But GBM is an entrepreneur and probably also a politicalpreneur. He must have seen an opportunity to ride on in the UPND whose presidential candidate had already failed to win on four previous occasions and was probably attempting for the last time.
GBM must have studied HIchilema’s political strategy which always focuses on the short term and which has made it impossible for him to strike and sustain workable political alliances.
As an absolute political novice back in 2006, Hichilema failed to reason with FDD’s Edith Nawakwi on the leadership of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) which brought together the UPND, UNIP and FDD. Due to disagreements on who would lead the alliance, the UDA died soon after the election although its heart beat continued for the length of the parliamentary term due to some MPs who were elected on its ticket. Who knows? Maybe the UDA could have developed into a formidable force afterwards?
Hichilema again demonstrated lack of foresight when he insisted on leading the PF/UPND pact in 2011 leading to its collapse. HH lost another opportunity to become president after Sata’s term or, as it turned out, his death.
Surprisingly, HH failed to learn from these two past events because soon after the collapse of the PF/UPND pact, he turned down a working alliance with the MMD going into the 2011 elections.
Most recently towards the 2015 presidential by election, HH again failed to leverage political influence in the MMD through a working relationship that had already been negotiated. Clearly, with a little bit of long term political strategy or vision, HH would have already become president of Zambia by now.
GBM on the other hand, is doing the exact opposite. Firstly, GBM’s motive for joining the UPND is his long term personal ambition to become president of Zambia. He needs an appropriate vehicle to take him there and at this particular time, the UPND happens to be the perfect vehicle because its leader will be running for the last time in 2016.
Therefore, GBM’s focus, unlike that of HH, is beyond 2016. After HH fails to deliver state house for the UPND in 2016, GBM will be perfectly positioned to take over from him.
Hichilema and his followers are not able to see GBM’s schemes because they are focussing 100 per cent on 2016 and nothing else. They are also under pressure to make their leadership more colorful by reducing the Tonga influence or tag on their party. The UPND are also excited at any prospects of diluting PF’s influence in the north and will support any person or activity which seems to diminish the ruling party’s influence anywhere in the country.
Geoffrey Mwamba’s appointment as Vice President for administration in the UPND is perhaps his best political achievement in a long time because it opens the door to the resurrection of his presidential ambition. The Kasama parliamentary seat doesn’t mean anything to him anymore. In fact, he may not even contest it.
GBM will now use his financial muscle to weave his way through the UPND structures and the 2016 election is a great opportunity for him, not to win, but to establish himself for the future.
Such is politicalpreneurship!
The post Opinion: GBM is a ‘Politicalpreneur’ appeared first on Zambia Reports.