“If at all they will ever be in power, maybe a hundred years from now, not in my generation…they are polygamous by nature. So, maybe as they produce more children, they can be in power. But not under the leadership of Hichilema, I don’t think it will happen,” this is the controversial statement issued by Patriotic Front (PF) secretary general Davies Chama. Chama made the remarks in reference to United Party for National Development (UPND) attempts to become a ruling party.
Subsequently, the Tongas held a meeting on Sunday in Monze town where they deliberated for almost a day and recommended that President Edgar Lungu should fire Davies Chama, his deputy Mumbi Phiri and information minister Chishimba Kambwili for issuing similar statements. The meeting also labelled the current Cabinet as a ‘class of collective dumbness’.
The meeting that was publicised in the Post Newspaper attracted Tonga people and chiefs from most of the villages in Southern Province. The meeting concluded that the Tongas will not seek any apologies from the three offending PF officials except that they should be removed from office.
However, this Tonga meeting has several implications on the UPND as a political party whose leader Hakainde Hichilema is seeking the Republican Presidency in the 2016 general elections.
Firstly, the meeting could be regarded as a solidarity forum for the Tongas to encourage each other never to give up their attempts to install one of their tribesmen as President of Zambia. It is a fact from many statistical analysis and interpretation that since the inception of the party by its late founder Anderson Kambela Mazoka, UPND has made Southern Province their strongest base.
Segregation in Voting Pattern
In the early 2000’s until the 2008 elections, the party was doing well across the country and voters were more tolerant to other candidates from other parts of the country. The voting pattern and voter distribution had some element of elasticity although UPND candidates always triumphed. Yet, the voting pattern started changing in the 2011 general elections and it became worse in the 2015 presidential by-election.
In the 2015 presidential by-election, the voters in Southern Province expressed what could be regarded as the highest form of dissent when they voted for the presidential candidates. The voting tendency and pattern had moved to dangerous extremes that created a wave of murmur across the nation. This is due to the fact that, there was a huge voter turnout which is commendable, although some contenders questioned it. Then most of the voters only wanted to vote for one candidate, Hakainde Hichilema. As such, people raised concerns as to whether Southern Province had closed its door to other candidates regardless of their good election campaign messages, and could only vote for Hichilema for being “one of them.”
Are Tongas Synonymous to UPND?
Somehow, there is a thought developing albeit unproven that Southern Province is to a larger extent synonymous to UPND as a political party. This connection basically implies that voters from other provinces are likely to follow the trend that is set by Southerners to vote for candidates who hail from their region. However, in towns along the line of rail which have a cosmopolitan population, the UPND will have to triple their efforts to convince the more educated and independent voters to free itself of the regional or tribal party tag. But then, with such meetings meant only for Tongas rubbing into the political arena, it could mean that the UPND need to work even harder to demystify that developing thought. It might be hard work because while UPND could be attracting some independent voters from other provinces, the tribal element is popping up, and it is scaring prospective members away.
The UPND should also learn from the six parliamentary by-elections they have lost so far this year. Hichilema has always put up a brave face and he has always painted a positive outlook of the party’s performance despite losing. Of course, this is expected of him as a leader but it is not enough. If the parliamentary by-elections are to be taken as a litmus test of the upcoming general elections, UPND needs to toughen up, not just in Southern Province, but in other provinces of Zambia. So far, UPND has lost in Northern, Western, Eastern and Copperbelt Provinces. It remains to be seen in terms of strategy shift in winning more support of voters from other regions. The party should address these failures with sobriety and find their niche that can win them votes. This is because the painting of a positive picture of the party will not translate into votes.
The firing recommendation and classic dumbness
The Tonga meeting recommended that President Lungu fires Davies Chama, Mumbi Phiri and Chishimba Kambwili. Organising committee chairperson Eddie Hamakowa said President Lungu has failed to provide leadership by allowing Kambwili, Phiri and Chama to use damaging statements against Tongas. “What baffles me is the fact that this matter must have been discussed in Cabinet and if they agreed that there was no need for any action, we could be witnessing a classic case of collective dumbness,” Hamakowa said.
It is difficult to imagine how, a tribal grouping that is closely connected to a political party rivalling the ruling party can recommend the firing of his senior party officials. This is so because of the fact that if President Lungu implements such recommendation, he would be weakening his own party and giving UPND an upper hand. The closest to such a recommendation is that President Lungu should discipline the three party officials. However, this was not the case and leaves the whole issue unresolved.
Further, the meeting failed to strike a conciliatory tone by labelling Cabinet as dumb. Such is a class allegation that demeans the Cabinet members and it has the potential to be frowned upon for luck of courtesy or failure to create a platform where progressive negotiations can be conducted. As such, the meeting by Tongas dubbed Chuundu Chaitwa might create more problems for the UPND than any good that could have been envisaged.
The post Opinion: How Chuundu Chaitwa is De-campaigning UPND appeared first on Zambia Reports.